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AMD: A Healthy Pause in the AI Race, With Room Left to Run

July 4, 2025 By Analysis.org

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed at $137.91 in the latest session, just shy of the $140 mark that has become a near-term resistance level. While the stock has pulled back modestly, this should be seen less as a loss of momentum and more as a moment of consolidation following a powerful spring rally. From April through late June, AMD’s share price climbed more than 60%, adding over $30 billion in market capitalization in just the last six trading days of June alone. This momentum was largely driven by optimism surrounding its AI roadmap and strong anticipation for its MI300 series chips, which many view as AMD’s strategic offensive against Nvidia’s dominance in AI accelerators.

However, despite this substantial recovery, AMD remains notably behind some of its peers in the semiconductor space when it comes to stock performance relative to historical highs. Unlike Nvidia and Broadcom—both of which are trading at or near all-time highs, buoyed by euphoric sentiment around their entrenched positions in AI infrastructure—AMD is still in the middle of its one-year price range. While Nvidia’s stock has soared past previous records and Broadcom has been rewarded with investor confidence following its acquisition strategy and AI growth narrative, AMD finds itself in a more transitional phase, not yet fully priced as a generational AI winner.

This disparity could be interpreted in two ways. Bears may see it as a sign that AMD hasn’t quite earned its AI premium, or that competition and execution risks still loom. But a more forward-looking, bullish interpretation is that AMD represents a relative value opportunity in a market that has already richly rewarded its larger competitors. The stock is not priced for perfection. It still carries the potential for upside surprise, particularly if the company’s MI350 launch delivers the kind of benchmark performance and customer adoption that bulls are expecting. The MI400 and MI450, still under wraps, only add to the longer-term narrative.

The broader market is also in a holding pattern, with inflation data cooling slightly and interest rate speculation keeping risk assets in check. AMD’s recent pause around $135–$140 could therefore be less about company-specific hesitation and more a reflection of macro-level digestion. Still, with its fundamentals strengthening, and its AI strategy coming into sharper focus, AMD is uniquely positioned. It has not yet priced in the level of success that Wall Street is already assuming for Nvidia and Broadcom. This creates a setup where a strong product execution cycle could act as a major re-rating catalyst.

To reach $300 per share from today’s levels would require a doubling of AMD’s value—a bold expectation, but not an unreasonable one if it successfully captures market share in data center GPUs and AI inference workloads. For now, AMD remains the AI story with the most to prove, but also with the most to gain. The stock is not overextended. It’s not at all-time highs. It’s in the middle of the range—and possibly the middle of a longer journey that has only just begun.

Filed Under: Briefing

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