Briefing

The next rally in the financial sector is likely to emerge from a quiet turning point rather than a marketwide euphoric surge. It will be triggered not by sudden optimism, but by the resolution of several forces that have held the sector in limbo: elevated short-term rates, a flat or inverted yield curve, cautious lending conditions, and weak credit growth. Right now, … [Read more...] about When Will the Next Financial Rally Begin? Reading the Signals from Rates, Credit, and Policy

There’s a common belief among investors that higher interest rates automatically benefit the financial sector. After all, if banks can charge more on loans, shouldn’t their profits soar? While there's some truth to that, the reality is far more nuanced. Interest rates are not a simple “up equals good” formula for financial stocks. The full story lies in how fast rates rise, … [Read more...] about The Interest Rate Puzzle: How It Really Affects the Financial Sector

The financial sector is a deep and varied ecosystem, and while crypto often captures the headline buzz, the core of the sector—banks, insurers, asset managers, exchanges, and payment infrastructure—has seen its own share of rallies across different economic cycles. Stripping out the crypto noise, we’re left with traditional finance and its modern extensions, and the potential … [Read more...] about The Shape of Financial Sector Rallies: Where They’ve Been, Where They Might Return

Once in a lifetime, a technology arrives not just to enhance productivity but to transform the very architecture of the economy. Artificial Intelligence is that force today—pervasive, exponential, and still in its infancy. Like electricity in the early 20th century or the internet in the late 1990s, AI is not just a new tool; it is a new foundation. And with such seismic … [Read more...] about When the Shiller P/E Breaks: How AI Is Rewriting the Rules of Market Valuation

A Shiller P/E ratio above 50 used to be rarefied territory—reserved for moments of exuberance so intense they etched themselves into financial history. Yet today, the Nasdaq-100's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio hovers near 52.6, and individual titans within the index, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, show even more astonishing numbers. At the outer … [Read more...] about When Shiller P/E Ratios Soar: What Nasdaq’s Valuation Says About the Market’s Faith